Well it seems that picking NFL game was not my forte in September especially after posting an 0-3 record last week. I picked the Pats to win big and after the first half I looked like a genius, ufnortunately the Pats forgot to play the second half. The Jets were straight beatdown by the Raiders, something I failed to predict and the Giants surprised us all (fine just me) by taking down the Vince Young Dream Team. I blame the Red Sox. I was not in my right mind next weekend.
Well that all ends this weekend as the onset of October, and the departure of Terry Francona will solidify my focus and allow me to resurrect my record, and possibly my reputation. My strategy’s have not been working so far. To quote Brad Pitt playing Billy Beane in Moneyball; “Adapt or Die”.
Buffalo Bills -3 at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bills are 3-0. I am 0-3 picking their games. That changes this week. For too long I have dimissed the Bills. This week I believe that offense will run circles around the orange and black in Cincinnati. Some people have suggested the Bills may struggle once they go on the road but I wouldn’t call Cincinnati a real road test. With only a three point spread I look for the Bills to win easily.
New York Giants -1 at Arizona Cardinals
Obviously the oddsmakers are still skeptical of the G-Men despite an 2-1 start. I share that skepticism or at least I did last week. Not today! Kevin Kolb used to be the quarterback in Philadelphia and now in Arizona has had some success throwing for five touchdowns and 812 yards through three games. Can the former Eagle do what Mike Vick couldn’t? Maybe but it’s doubtful. Jason Pierre-Paul has emerged as a devastating force on the defensive line collecting 4.5 sacks so far this season. (You’ll notice that I did predict that correctly in our NFL preview) Look for the Giants to keep the pressue on Kolb and for Eli Manning to guide the offense to a win.
New England Patriots -4 at Oakland Raiders
I am still in shock that the Patriots gave up that game last week. This added to probably one of the least fun week of Boston sports in awhile. Luckily the big reason for the Patriots losing was their terrible pass defense. The Raiders run the ball extremely well but passing isn’t exactly a strength. The Patriots have also never lost back to back games as long as Brady was under center and that’s not going to change this week. Forget about the fluke that was last week’s four interception performance, Patriots win by way more than four. (Alright so I guess I haven’t changed up everything.)
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens -3.5
Well if Rex Ryan was trying to get the Jets lots of primetime games with his shenanigans on and off the field it has worked. The Jets have their second primetime game in the first four weeks. Last season these teams also met in primetime in a bruising 10-9 victory that went to the Baltimore Ravens. The Jets got exposed last week on the road in Oakland showing weakness against the run and a loss of trust in the running game. The Ravens defense will be much less forgiving to a still underwhelming Mark Sanchez and Ray Rice leads a solid running game (127.7 YPG) that should find success against Gang Green. Derrick Mason returns to the team he played for for the last 68 years (Seriously it seems like he’s been playing forever) but it won’t help the Jets enough. I picked the Jets on the road last week and was brutally wrong, not this week.
There you have it your Week 4 picks. 0-3 is going to be a distant memory I scoff at after this week.
Follow @seeuinoctober on Sunday for thoughts/impressions of NFL action.